Florida

Following two decades as one of the nation’s premier swing states, Florida was hotly contested in the 2020 presidential election. Donald Trump ultimately won his home state by over three percentage points, a notable step to the right after the former president won the state by just over one percentage point in 2016.

Florida’s provision of data on first-time voters is of particular utility. Using the May 2024 voter file, we discover that the rejection rate for mail ballots in the 2024 Republican presidential preference primary was 2.5 times greater for first-time voters than for returners. This is especially noteworthy because the Sunshine State has entered the 2020s as one of the fastest-growing states in the nation, driven in part by domestic migration, which has significant implications for election administration and outcomes.

Other aspects of voting behavior and policy changes in Florida have contributed to a changing election landscape over the last several years. Major shifts in voter registration and vote mode trends since 2020 may affect how Floridians vote in the upcoming election. This report will analyze the 2020 primary and general elections before turning to contemporary controversies relevant to the 2024 election in Florida.