Arizona

The election landscape in Arizona has evolved in recent years, making it one of the nation’s most closely watched states on election night. The changing electorate and resulting slim vote margins, coupled with the state’s use of mail ballots, have also drawn much scrutiny. In this report, we discuss the state's 2026 electoral landscape and provide analysis of its primary elections. 

Arizona provides statewide election data back to 1912, including voter registration counts, unofficial election night results, official canvasses of election results, and an archive of precinct-level results. In this document, we identify the locations of the data and their dedicated webpages at the state level, as well as for Maricopa and Pima counties.

Arizona’s state primary elections were held on July 30, 2024, without any major issues in election administration. Audits in many counties and even a recount of a close race confirm that votes were counted accurately. Throughout the summer, the composition of registered voters in the state has continued to follow trends that were established as early as 2020. The number of registered Democrats in fall 2024 is lower than it was in fall 2020, but the number of registered Republicans and other registrants are both higher than they were four years ago. The state’s 1.4 million Republicans outnumber both other groups. The number of ballots cast in the Democratic state primary was less than it was four years ago and also less than the number of ballots cast in the Republican state primary. However, both Democrats and Republicans cast more ballots in their respective state primary contests than they had in the presidential primaries of 2024, though there were very few competitive primary contests in Arizona at either a state or federal level this year.

In 2020, Arizona was one of the most contested states during the presidential campaign and election, which Joe Biden carried by just 10,457 votes, or 0.3% of votes cast. The state is once again expected to serve as an electoral battleground in 2024. This label entails a higher level of election scrutiny by statewide political parties, voting rights organizations, advocates, and the campaigns themselves. 

This report will review historical election and voter registration trends in Arizona, election administration performance in the 2024 Presidential Preference Election (PPE), potential controversies and challenges for the 2024 General Election, and post-election issues that may arise. 

A topic of particular interest is the role of election audits in recent Arizona elections. The state gained national attention in 2020 and 2021 when the state legislature initiated what they termed a “forensic audit” of Maricopa County’s election administration and ballot tabulation. Judicial and legislative action in the state has altered the ability of state and local officials to conduct hand counts and audits, and this report will detail these changes. The role of skepticism about the outcomes of the 2020 election in Arizona cannot be understated, and its influence on state officials, elections offices, and the general public will continue into the 2024 general election and its aftermath.